Uncertainty Management and Quantification in Industrial Analysis & Design EDF R & D, Chatou, Paris, France 15th - 16th May, 2012

Coordinator: Prof. Charles Hirsch, Numeca International

ERCOFTAC is proud to announce a two day awareness course on ‘Uncertainty Management and Quantification in Industrial Analysis & Design'.

Lecturers

Prof. Charles Hirsch, Numeca International, Belgium

Prof. Anthony Hutton, ERCOFTAC, UK

Dr. Alberto Pasanisi, EDF, France

Dr. Gilbert Roge, Dassault-Aviation, France

Dr. Alexander Karl, Rolls Royce, USA

Dr. Bernhard Eisfeld, DLR, Germany

Dr. Alain Dervieux, INRIA, France

Dr. Jacques Peter, ONERA, France

Uncertainty quantification is a new paradigm in industrial analysis and design as it aims at taking into account the presence of numerous uncertainties affecting the behavior of physical systems. Dominating uncertainties can be either be operational (such as boundary conditions) and/or geometrical resulting from unknown properties, such as tip clearances of rotating compressor blades or from manufacturing tolerances.

Whether bringing a new product from conception into production or operating complex plant and production processes, commercial success rests on careful management and control of risk in the face of many interacting uncertainties. For example a new aircraft or aero-engine must be designed and engineered within a given time frame and budget to meet a given set of performance requirements, and then manufactured at unit cost and rates that meet an overall business plan. Today’s fiercely competitive market and increasingly stringent regulatory environment is such that there is very little margin of error. Failure to appreciate, understand and appropriately manage risks inevitably results in severe financial penalties, and even irrevocable damage to reputation.

Historically, chief engineers and project managers have estimated and managed risk using mostly human judgment founded upon years of experience and heritage. As the 21st century begins to unfold, the design and engineering of products as well as the control of plant and process are increasingly relying on computer models and simulation. This era of virtual design and engineering opens the opportunity to deal with uncertainty in a systematic formal way by which sensitivities to various uncertainties can be quantified and understood, and designs and processes optimized so as to be robust against such uncertainties. Human judgment will always play an important role, but leading companies in many fields of engineering are increasingly aware of these possibilities and uncertainty quantification is beginning to feature strongly in their strategic aspirations. Thus this is a very opportune moment to introduce a two- day awareness course on this emerging topic.

The aim is to share the aspirations and requirements of leading companies in the fields of aerospace, energy, transport and chemical process; review emerging methods and techniques and how these are being deployed; and define the current state-of-the-art and map out-near term future possibilities.