Belgium, October 27, 2016

UM&Q is a new paradigm in industrial analysis and design as
it aims at taking into account the presence of numerous
uncertainties affecting the behaviour of physical systems.
Product success rests on careful management and control of
risk wrt interacting uncertainties. The aim is to share how
UM&Q is expressed in the fields of Aerospace, Formula 1 and
Power generation, and review emerging methods, techniques
and deployment.

Description:

 

 Uncertainty Management & Quantification in Industrial 

Analysis and Design 

 

27 - 28 October 2016 

Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium 

 

 

Coordinator: Prof. C. Hirsch 

Em. Vrije Universiteit Brussels 

President, Numeca Int., Belgium 

 

 

Organiser: Dr. Richard E. Seoud, ERCOFTAC 

Open for registration 

 

  

 

 

Aim 

 

Uncertainty quantification is a new paradigm in industrial 

analysis and design as it aims at taking into account the 

presence of numerous uncertainties affecting the behaviour 

of physical systems. Dominating uncertainties can be either 

be operational (such as boundary conditions) and/or 

geometrical resulting from unknown properties, such as tip 

clearances of rotating compressor blades or from 

manufacturing tolerances. 

 

Whether bringing a new product from conception into 

production oroperating complex plant and production 

processes, commercial success rests on careful management 

and control of risk in the face of many interacting 

uncertainties. For example a new aircraft or aero-engine 

must be designed and engineered within a given time frame 

and budget to meet a given set of performance requirements, 

and then manufactured at unit cost and rates that meet an 

overall business plan. Today’s fiercely competitive market 

and increasingly stringent regulatory environment is such 

that there is very little margin of error. Failure to 

appreciate, understand and appropriately manage risks 

inevitably results in severe financial penalties, and even 

irrevocable damage to reputation. 

 

Historically, chief engineers and project managers have 

estimated and managed risk using mostly human judgment 

founded upon years of experience and heritage. As the 21st 

century begins to unfold, the design and engineering of 

products as well as the control of plant and process are 

increasingly relying on computer models and simulation. This 

era of virtual design and engineering opens the opportunity 

to deal with uncertainty in a systematic formal way by which 

sensitivities to various uncertainties can be quantified and 

understood,and designs and processes optimized so as to be 

robust against such uncertainties. Human judgment will 

always play an important role, but leading companies in many 

fields of engineering are increasingly aware of these 

possibilities and uncertainty quantification is beginning to 

feature strongly in their strategic aspirations. Thus this 

is a very opportune moment to introduce a two- day awareness 

course on this emerging topic. 

 

The aim is to share the aspirations and requirements of 

leading companies in the fields of Aerospace, Formula 1 and 

Power generation; review emerging methods and techniques and 

how these are being deployed; and define the current 

state-of-the-art and map out-near term future possibilities. 

 

Lecturers 

Prof. Charles Hirsch - Coordinator 

Em. Vrije Universiteit Brussels 

President, Numeca Int., Belgium 

 

Dr Ghader Ghorbaniasl 

Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium 

 

Dr. Shahrokh Shahpar 

Rolls-Royce, Derby, UK 

 

Dr. Francesco Montomoli 

Imperial College, London, UK 

 

Dr Gilbert Rogé 

Dassault Aviation, FR 

 

Dr. Dirk Wunsch 

NUMECA Int., BE 

 

Registration: richard.seoud-ieo@ercoftac.org.  

 

Fees: Members €595, Non-Members €895 

 

Fees do NOT cover accommodation